EU referendum betting odds

Betting odds indicate 62 per cent probability of UK voting to stay in EU (as at 15 June 2016), having dropped from 78 per cent probability in the last few weeks. Nevertheless 62:38 is not a neck and neck race!

The implied probability of a British vote to stay in the European Union on June 23 rose at least two percentage points on Thursday 9 June 2016 to 78 percent, according to betting odds supplied by Betfair. Earlier in the week, betting odds indicated a 72 percent probability of an in vote. 

Betting odds have consistently indicated an In vote, while opinion polls have so far painted contradictory pictures of how Britons will vote.

Moral: because bookies stand to lose money if they get it wrong, they are more likely to be near the mark than opinion pollsters, who got their predictions disastrously wrong in the 1992 election and again in 2015.